Authors: WEI Ying-qi, ZHANG Shen (Dept. of Geotechnical Engineering, IWHR, Beijing 100048, China)

Abstract: Leakage is one of the main problems about dams. Analysis and prediction about dam leakage help significantly to understand dam seepage and improve project management. But the gray and even black characteristics shown by the dam internal leakage increased the difficulty in analyzing seepage. Conventional least squares method can’t be used because of the multiple collinear variables and small sample. As to such problems, this paper has established a statistical regression model and has analyzed the main factors associated with the degree of leakage by use of partial least squares regression method and based on flow monitoring data. This model has been adopted to predict Jilintai concrete rockfill dam leakage under operating conditions. The results have demonstrated the feasibility of this method.

Key words: partial least squares, regression model, seepage analysis

Published in: Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2011

Article ID: 1672-3031 (2011) 03-0205-04