YUAN Zhe 1, 2, YANG Zhi-yong 1, 2, SHI Xiao-liang 3, YAN Deng-hua 1, 2 (1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 2. Department of Water Resources, IWHR, Beijing 100038, China; 3. Information Center, Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450004, China)

Abstract: Based on the differential hydrological grey-model, the annual/seasonal indexes were applied to data pre-processing of precipitation and runoff for establishing the Differential Hydrological Grey Self-memory Model with the self-memory theory. The model was used to simulate and predict the runoff in different time scales. The results show that (a) DHGM (2, 2) and Self-memory DHGM (2, 2) which constructed by initial data cannot described the runoff processes in annual and monthly scales. With the pre-processing data of precipitation and runoff, the Self-memory DHGM (2, 2) performed better both in Shandaohezi and Luanxian discharges, and Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficients reached more than 0.6, (b) the model was applicable to predicting the runoff especially on an annual time scale. The structure model was simple and easy to operate, nevertheless, the factors of evaporation, land-use and human activity should be taken into consideration so that the model can be more perfect.

Key words: Grey model, self-memory theory, annual or seasonal index, runoff

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 7, 2013